Chicago Blackhawks at Issue (1)

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Recently my sister posted a note for me on Facebook, and here is our exchange:

BROSEPH - HELP!! HELP!!! The Hawks are killing me...you help me calm down and find the reasoning and rational comments with each game! NEED you - wish you were here....sigh

YahLOH! How 'bout dem'Blackhawks? After a collapse against the Avalanche, and a disaster against the Bruins, it's hard to see them as a Cup contender. Of course if they keep playing mediocre, as they have the last two months, they won't go far in the playoffs. Of course, too, any team will see them as a very dangerous opponent in the playoffs. Despite the last two games, though, they have remained one of the toughest teams to score on and one of the toughest teams to get a Power Play goal on. These are two crucial factors in the playoffs, as it's often a grind-it-out game. Their goal-scoring has, unfortunately, been the major issue this year (2.83 GF/G) which is a drop from last year (3.18 GF/G). The problem is that the 3rd (Shaw line) and 4th (Kruger line) lines haven't been scoring very much. So if the top two lines have a cold spell, like Kane, the team has a hard time winning. This is the main issue: not team defense, not goaltending, but balanced scoring on team offense. One of the Kings' success factors last year was Sutter being able to rely on all of his four lines, while Quenneville couldn't. It's looking worse this year. In the past several years, the Hawks and Kings have played so many more games than everyone else in the NHL, so like a car with a lot of mileage, they're going to have more breakdowns. On top of that, if a coach is relying only on 9 or 10 forwards a game, instead of all 12, players wear down in the course of the game and a playoff series (which is part of what happened for the Hawks in Game 7 of the WCF last year). Kings have started to play like defending Cup champions, and are the hottest team right now. But they often struggle during the regular season, similar to the Hawks. The priority for the Hawks right now is get back on the W column, but solving their limited and unbalanced goal scoring is huge between now and the end of the season. The good news is that they have the fire power on the team: For one, expect Tervainen to be back on the team; I imagine they're trying to ramp up his scoring over there in Rockford. Quenneville had him on the 3rd line for several games. Bickell will step up, but Shaw, Kruger and Smith also have to score some greasy and deflection goals. Finally, if you look at the standings, and filter it for League, the Hawks are currently 11th. But despite their problematic play this year, they've beaten several of the teams above them, including the top four: Predators, Canadiens, Ducks and Blues. The Hawks are a proud, highly talented, veteran team, and they will play up to their Cup champion selves, when games really start to matter. They should once again be odds-on favorites to win the Cup, despite what Barry Melrose says!

Well holy moly bro!! Hawks commentator extraordinaire-yahlooooo...we still have a defense issue though where our PK has dropped since December so I still think defense is a problem. Can't Rosival and Oduya just go away and TvR can pair up with Hjarmalsson and put Keith and Seabs back together. Runblad does not impress me. This Western Central os tough. I heard Bowman was the 1st in the locker room after this embarassing loss against the Bruins, THREE straight losses @ the UC. How do you watch the games? I am heading to Pasadena and I know I cannot watch the games during the week except when they play the Kings on Monday. March 30th.

The problems with the Hawks look much larger than they are when they struggle and lose. Every facet of their game is intricately linked together - from forechecking, to backchecking; from neutral ice passing, to zone entries - so when one thing suffers, they seem to have a hard time keeping it together. Losing Kane makes their flaws and struggles even more glaring. The main problem with the defense is that in the last few years, they haven't had this many of the defensemen struggling. Only Keith, Seabrook and Hjalmarsson are playing well, while Oduya and Rozsival are not playing up to snuff. Last year, with Leddy in the mix, five out of six defensemen were steady to stellar, and all that Quenneville had to worry about was that sixth spot: usually rotating Rozsival and Brookbank. What remains amazing is that while there is slippage in team defense and goaltending, and despite big losses recently, Hawks are still one of toughest teams to score on. Rundblad is a very interesting case: He is a +16, second only to Toews (+21). Unfortunately I haven't been able to watch many games at all, so it's hard to know how he's actually playing. But what +16 means is that when he's on the ice, the Hawks are much more likely to score than be scored on. The plus-minus is one of the most underappreciated stat in hockey, but to me it's a good indicator of team offense/team defense. Toews is the quintessential two-way player, great on both offense and defense: That's how he won the Selke Trophy two years ago. So his +21 is hardly a surprise. Hossa is another great two-way player, but amazingly his +7 lags Rundblad's +16 by a mile. Whatever it is, something special happens when Rundblad hits the ice. Finally, let's see how the new (old) guy Timonen plays, and let's see how TVR does in Rockford. If they both play well, and if Oduya can get back on track, then the Hawks should be set going into the playoffs. But unless they score at least 3 goals a game - that's the magic number - it's not going to matter too much who's on defense or who's minding the net. Lackluster starts, plus falling behind in the scoreboard, put way too much pressure on the defense to hold up. Teams are just eagle-eyed for bobbles and over-pinching defensemen, and they're ready to go for the kill.
 
Note:  I wrote the preceding paragraph on February 28th 2015.