Friday, February 20, 2015

Chicago Blackhawks at Issue (3)

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Chicago Blackhawks at Issue (2)


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A fellow Blackhawks fan posted this recently, and I commented:
While I'll agree the D hasn't been great, and that's all we hear about in the news, am I the i the only one that see that the Hawks just aren't scoring the way they use to?? This team was always tops in goals and is now tenth, if they don't keep it in the offensive zone and score that puts pressure on the D. Most of our recent games, we can't score more than 2 goals. If we were scoring 4 goals a game, nobody would be talking about D issues. Just my 2 cents. Our puck control has not been good nor our forechecking.
Exactly, Kevin. The Hawks are one of the toughest teams to score on, both 5-on-5 and PK, and it's been this way all season. So neither defense nor goaltending is the issue. But their GF/G is down this year (2.82) from last year (3.18), and it's because they're not getting much production from the 3rd and 4th lines. Also, to your point, if we do a net result of takeaways and giveaways, there are stretches in a game where Hawks' opponents are doing better: What it means is that Hawks need to clean up and tighten up their puck possession. Finally, maybe Quenneville and the coaches have the players focused more on backchecking, that is, to the relative neglect of forechecking.

Note:  I posted my comments on February 27th 2015.

Monday, February 16, 2015

Chicago Blackhawks at Issue (1)


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Recently my sister posted a note for me on Facebook, and here is our exchange:
BROSEPH - HELP!! HELP!!! The Hawks are killing me...you help me calm down and find the reasoning and rational comments with each game! NEED you - wish you were here....sigh
YahLOH! How 'bout dem'Blackhawks? After a collapse against the Avalanche, and a disaster against the Bruins, it's hard to see them as a Cup contender. Of course if they keep playing mediocre, as they have the last two months, they won't go far in the playoffs. Of course, too, any team will see them as a very dangerous opponent in the playoffs. Despite the last two games, though, they have remained one of the toughest teams to score on and one of the toughest teams to get a Power Play goal on. These are two crucial factors in the playoffs, as it's often a grind-it-out game. Their goal-scoring has, unfortunately, been the major issue this year (2.83 GF/G) which is a drop from last year (3.18 GF/G). The problem is that the 3rd (Shaw line) and 4th (Kruger line) lines haven't been scoring very much. So if the top two lines have a cold spell, like Kane, the team has a hard time winning. This is the main issue: not team defense, not goaltending, but balanced scoring on team offense. One of the Kings' success factors last year was Sutter being able to rely on all of his four lines, while Quenneville couldn't. It's looking worse this year. In the past several years, the Hawks and Kings have played so many more games than everyone else in the NHL, so like a car with a lot of mileage, they're going to have more breakdowns. On top of that, if a coach is relying only on 9 or 10 forwards a game, instead of all 12, players wear down in the course of the game and a playoff series (which is part of what happened for the Hawks in Game 7 of the WCF last year). Kings have started to play like defending Cup champions, and are the hottest team right now. But they often struggle during the regular season, similar to the Hawks. The priority for the Hawks right now is get back on the W column, but solving their limited and unbalanced goal scoring is huge between now and the end of the season. The good news is that they have the fire power on the team: For one, expect Tervainen to be back on the team; I imagine they're trying to ramp up his scoring over there in Rockford. Quenneville had him on the 3rd line for several games. Bickell will step up, but Shaw, Kruger and Smith also have to score some greasy and deflection goals. Finally, if you look at the standings, and filter it for League, the Hawks are currently 11th. But despite their problematic play this year, they've beaten several of the teams above them, including the top four: Predators, Canadiens, Ducks and Blues. The Hawks are a proud, highly talented, veteran team, and they will play up to their Cup champion selves, when games really start to matter. They should once again be odds-on favorites to win the Cup, despite what Barry Melrose says!
Well holy moly bro!! Hawks commentator extraordinaire-yahlooooo...we still have a defense issue though where our PK has dropped since December so I still think defense is a problem. Can't Rosival and Oduya just go away and TvR can pair up with Hjarmalsson and put Keith and Seabs back together. Runblad does not impress me. This Western Central os tough. I heard Bowman was the 1st in the locker room after this embarassing loss against the Bruins, THREE straight losses @ the UC. How do you watch the games? I am heading to Pasadena and I know I cannot watch the games during the week except when they play the Kings on Monday. March 30th.
The problems with the Hawks look much larger than they are when they struggle and lose. Every facet of their game is intricately linked together - from forechecking, to backchecking; from neutral ice passing, to zone entries - so when one thing suffers, they seem to have a hard time keeping it together. Losing Kane makes their flaws and struggles even more glaring. The main problem with the defense is that in the last few years, they haven't had this many of the defensemen struggling. Only Keith, Seabrook and Hjalmarsson are playing well, while Oduya and Rozsival are not playing up to snuff. Last year, with Leddy in the mix, five out of six defensemen were steady to stellar, and all that Quenneville had to worry about was that sixth spot: usually rotating Rozsival and Brookbank. What remains amazing is that while there is slippage in team defense and goaltending, and despite big losses recently, Hawks are still one of toughest teams to score on. Rundblad is a very interesting case: He is a +16, second only to Toews (+21). Unfortunately I haven't been able to watch many games at all, so it's hard to know how he's actually playing. But what +16 means is that when he's on the ice, the Hawks are much more likely to score than be scored on. The plus-minus is one of the most underappreciated stat in hockey, but to me it's a good indicator of team offense/team defense. Toews is the quintessential two-way player, great on both offense and defense: That's how he won the Selke Trophy two years ago. So his +21 is hardly a surprise. Hossa is another great two-way player, but amazingly his +7 lags Rundblad's +16 by a mile. Whatever it is, something special happens when Rundblad hits the ice. Finally, let's see how the new (old) guy Timonen plays, and let's see how TVR does in Rockford. If they both play well, and if Oduya can get back on track, then the Hawks should be set going into the playoffs. But unless they score at least 3 goals a game - that's the magic number - it's not going to matter too much who's on defense or who's minding the net. Lackluster starts, plus falling behind in the scoreboard, put way too much pressure on the defense to hold up. Teams are just eagle-eyed for bobbles and over-pinching defensemen, and they're ready to go for the kill.
 
Note:  I wrote the preceding paragraph on February 28th 2015.

Friday, February 6, 2015

The Absurdity that is the New York Knicks




I didn't react to this Forbes' explanation about the New York Knicks high valuation, in the aggressive, offensive way that this YouTuber did.  But I did wonder how in the world can a perennially dysfunctional, oft losing team be the second most valuable in the NBA - at a cool $2.5 billion - just behind the Los Angeles Lakers ($2.6 billion) and well ahead of the Chicago Bulls ($2 billion).  
Revenue: $278 million*
Operating income: $53 million

The Knicks drew the biggest TV audience in the NBA at 163,000 viewers per game on average last season despite their 37-45 record. The teams' operating income fell 45% after missing the playoffs and incurring a $36 million luxury tax bill. *Revenue and operating profit/loss are for the 2012-13 season.
Reference: #2 New York Knicks.

There is something to be said for scores of fans who love their team, no matter win or lose. There is something to be said for the biggest city, hence largest market, that is their home.  There is something to be said for the lore and culture, the moxie and sentiment, even the tragedy that define New Yorkers.


I think this YouTuber is spot on, as far as Forbes' intent with its sardonic explanation.  Of course, there are business underpinnings why the Knicks are worth so much.  But even though he is easily the King of Dysfunction in the Big Apple, maybe James Dolan knows more about how to run a NBA team than many of us give him credit for. 

Boom clap, there it is!  That has to be an absurd thought, isn't it.  You see, Forbes had it right.  Now go read Albert Camus' The Myth of Sisyphus
 

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

NBA Numbers at Dizzying Heights



For me, basketball has dropped to the third spot among my favorite major sports in the US, behind football and hockey.  I love the complexity of the gridiron and the grace-cum-aggression of its gladiators, even though the Chicago Bears have had aggravating seasons in recent years.  A fresh sheet of ice turns up the heat for me, largely because the Chicago Blackhawks are Stanley Cup battle tested and perennial favorites. 

But, man oh man, the numbers for the NBA, as Forbes Mike Ozanian and Kurt Badenhausen dish them out, have spiked up and seem poised to keep going north.  Over the past year, former Microsoft CEO and tech titan Steve Ballmer stood head and shoulders among owners, when he paid $2 billion for the Los Angeles Clippers.  Why did he over pay for a team that has been a laughingstock for much of its existence?  Simple, because he can.

The NFL is the most valuable sport on the planet, but this Forbes estimation makes me think that the NBA, with its great national and international appeal, can overtake the NFL at some point.  Unlike football, scores of fans around the world grasp the game of basketball and play it with minimal resources and costs.  Here's the full report and rundown from Forbes:  Lakers Top 2015 List Of NBA's Most Valuable Teams; Average Franchise Is Now Worth Record $1.1 Billion.

Monday, February 2, 2015

The Quintessential QB and Executive John Elway



John Elway was the quintessential comeback QB, and was a great study in competitiveness and persistence.  Playing for the Denver Broncos all of his career (1983 - 1999), he led the team to three Super Bowl appearances in 1987, 1988 and 1990 but lost each game.  There were some lean years, and missed playoffs, until the Broncos arrived at the big dance again in 1998.  This time, Elway & Co. punched the ticket and nabbed the Lombardi Trophy.  They returned the next year, and made it two in a row, after which Mr. Comeback called it a career.  What an amazing career it was, indeed.

It is quite a challenge for many star athletes and talented coaches to parlay their success into the executive ranks.  Consider Michael Jordan, and his woeful Charlotte Hornets.  Think Isiah Thomas, who was a fiasco as coach and executive.  Even Phil Jackson, one of the greatest coaches in NBA history and now rookie executive, is having a miserable go with the New York Knicks.  They either have to have the requisite front office leadership presence, skills and disposition, or be able to learn and develop these, in order to be successful.

Unfortunately, one of the most glaring pitfalls for any organization is to elevate a great performer to the next position and expect him or her to sustain such high level of performance.  Perhaps seduced by the recognition and promotion, he or she, too, believes that current skills can translate to a future challenge.  Again, unless they have the stuff to succeed in a new, more complicated position, they are bound to fail.

Fortunately for the Broncos, however, Elway has certainly proven that he possesses the savvy, moxie and discipline.  Under his four year, front office watch, his team boasts a 46-18 record, first place finishes in the AFC West every single year, plus yet another Super Bowl appearance for the quintessential leading edge executive.