From Sexual Assault Charges, to Heisman Trophy

Florida State QB Jameis Winston Wins the Heisman Trophy

I posted this photo and article on Google+, and remarked:  From sexual assault charges, to the Heisman Trophy ... what a turn of events for the young man!

I missed the Trophy ceremony, and frankly I was surprised he won.  He was cleared of these charges, but these apparently lingered in the minds of some Heisman voters.  Yet he still won. 

When his name was announced, he popped from his seat and quickly made his way to his mom and dad for hugs and kisses. He smiled and laughed through most of his acceptance speech. 

He talked about trusting in the "process" on the field and in life and "after all the things I've been through this past month." He got choked up a bit when talking about his parents. 

"When you see your mom and you see your dad and they've been struggling through this whole process and now you see a smile on their face, it comforted me," he said later.

Reference: Jameis Winston Wins Heisman.  

I also commented: I just hope Jameis Winston is truly a fine young man, along with an awesome football player.  

Our legal system is no barometer for character, and the verdict handed down in his favor is no insight into what actually happened between him and a woman.  We simply will not know for sure.

There were also allegations that the police were dismissive of that woman, especially in light of her accusing a hometown star player.  On ESPN Mike & Mike radio show, fellow broadcaster Jemele Hill was quite negative on the whole incident.

Johnny Manziel, another freshman who won the Heisman in 2012, proved that maturity is not a criterion for nabbing the coveted Trophy.

Congratulations, and best wishes, to Winston.

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

Sportsman and Anti-Sportsmen of the Year

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Hearty congratulations to Peyton Manning - Sportsman of the Year! That was a no-brainer decision for Sports Illustrated.

Just two years ago, while he sat out the 2011-2012 season, he must've wondered whether he could truly comeback from a serious neck injury and multiple surgeries.  That question was quickly put to bed, in the 2012-2013 season.  This season has been more of the same, and it's all positively sublime for an athlete of Manning's caliber and character.  

Richie Incognito

Incognito hit into the unsportsmanlike triple play of bullying, racial slurs and sexual harassment. Incognito's bullying is allegedly responsible for starting left tackle Jonathan Martin's sudden departure from the team midway through the season. According to Martin, Incognito harassed him constantly, left a threatening voicemail in which he called Martin a racial slur, and stuck Martin with a $15,000 bill for a Las Vegas trip the then-rookie didn't even take. After the Dolphins suspended Incognito indefinitely, details emerged of a police report filed a year earlier by a volunteer at a Dolphins charity golf tournament, who alleged Incognito sexually harassed her with a golf club.

He headlines the anti-Christ of athletes in SI's photo album Anti-Sportsmen of the Year.  He remains on extended suspension from the Dolphins, and I haven't heard yet of a final verdict on his case.  In his wake stand fellow Slur meisters Riley Cooper, Roy Hibbert and Kevin Garnett, who proves that he doesn't deserve to be called a man for insulting Carmelo Anthony's wife.  Moreover, they may be millionaires, even gifted athletes, but Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez and Von Miller are nothing more than junkies with the bling-bling to mask their low life.

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

Oh, Thank Heavens for the Ravens!

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I posted the following in the Chicago Bears Google+ community this afternoon:

When both offense and defense are scoring points, it's hard to beat the Bears. So congratulations for a really good win yesterday!

It's still a really tight playoff hunt, but as of right now, as we all know, Bears are in first place in the NFC North: half-game ahead of the Lions.

But they need help to get in the playoffs at season's end. We need the Ravens to play with Super Bowl pride, and beat the Lions tonight. It doesn't matter how they win, they just have to win.

The Ravens are fighting for their playoff lives, too, and as of right now, they're a half game behind the Dolphins for the last playoff spot in the AFC. So they have added motivation to win. They're a very well-coached team, so don't expect a Cowboys-like meltdown tonight.

Then, with a Ravens win, the Bears regain control their destiny. They lost control, after that devastating 2nd loss to the Lions. Beat the Eagles and the Packers, and they're in.

There's talk that Packers may shut Aaron Rodgers down for the season, but that was before their improbable win yesterday. If he's healthy, he'll play.

In the meantime, there's talk that Briggs may be back in the lineup soon. I don't know about Peanut, or even DJ, but we'll get guys back.

Once in the playoffs, anything can happen. It's a brand new season, after the New Year.

So let's go, Ravens! Let's go, Bears!

As it turned out, the Ravens won in awesome, dramatic fashion.  It was a last-minute, 61-yard field goal by Justin Tucker that won it.  18-16, in favor of the team that mattered most to the Bears.

Here, we go.  

Bears have a tough match up with the Eagles, but they have the capability to win.  Jay Cutler had a full game to work out the rust, and will have a full week of practice to prepare.  Lance Briggs may be cleared to play, but we will not know perhaps until this coming Friday.  

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

Sorry, Derrick, We've Heard That One Before

Bulls star Derrick Rose

"If I'm healthy and the situation is right, I'm going to be back playing," Rose said Thursday during a news conference in his first public comments since tearing the meniscus in his right knee Nov. 22. "If I'm healthy and my meniscus is fully healed, of course I'll be out there playing. But if it's something totally different and the outcome is not how I would want it to be, there's no need."

Reference: Derrick Rose:  Going to be all right.

ESPN published this article and interview on December 6th, and my first reaction was, Here we go again.  Sorry, Derrick, we've heard that one before.

After the debacle of The Season That Never Was, I am not expecting Rose to return to the playoffs.  I am not ruling out, for myself in my own mind, him taking half the 2014-2015 season to fully recover and rehabilitate his meniscus surgery.  When he does return, I do not see him returning to his old self.  For his own long-term health, he ought not try to do so, in light of the fact that his body has given him several signals - injuries galore, over three years - that it can no longer take the explosive force and brutal punishment he subjects it to.

Of course I can be entirely wrong, and that's fine.  I'll believe it, when I see it.

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

Tough Lessons for Rookie Head Coach Jason Kidd

Clash of styles, philosophies drove Nets coaching shuffle

Jason Kidd is in the news for all the wrong reasons: Lawrence Frank spat | $50,000 Spillgate | Nets 6-14 start (as of December 9th).

 

Kidd-Frank combo doomed from the start: source

Easy for people to say they saw the Jason Kidd & Nets train wreck, before it happened ... How does that saying go?  Hindsight is 20/20 vision.

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But what I want to know is, How could key people - Nets front office, Jason Kidd himself - have missed what was so apparent to various "sources"? 

Nets Rookie Head Coach Jason Kidd

The thing is, it's tough to be an NBA head coach. It requires a different set of skills, motivation and discipline than those of a player, and it takes a lot of time to develop all of these. Obviously, Jason Kidd doesn't have that luxury of time, but I did pick up clues that he's able to learn and willing to adjust on the fly.

Who knows, the Nets front office may be spot-on: Maybe Kidd does the have the potential to become a good NBA head coach.

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

Bears Marc Trestman Must Weigh Human Element

Chicago Bears Head Coach Marc Trestman

As Matt Eurich reports in Marc Trestman's honeymoon phase over with Chicago Bears fans, the Bears Head Coach appreciates the importance of analytics in football decision-making.  The book and the film `Moneyball may have popularized more statistics-driven sports, but it didn't speak entirely to the complexity and even the incompleteness of such an approach.  In baseball parlance, it's called sabermetrics, after the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR).

I posted Eurich's article, and commented:

The thing about sports analytics (rf. sabermetrics) is that it strips off the human element of decision-making. On the one hand, this is good, because some aspects of being human are not logical or rational and these work against proper decision-making. On the other hand, this is bad, because sports is inevitably a human effort and because sports is infinitely more complex than any analytics can account for (at least right now). So, at the end of the day, to make proper use of an analytics report or stat sheet, we have to put that human element back into the `equation (i.e., decision-making). We have to recognize that that human element is the essence of sports.

In the end he is still a rookie head coach. Mistakes happen, and just as his team has to learn to pick themselves up from mistakes, so does he. Fans were on cloud-nine when his offense helped lead come from behind victories against the Cincinnati Bengals and Minnesota Vikings in Weeks-1 and 2, and while the dreamy honeymoon phase with a new coach never lasts forever, let’s just hope it does not turn into a nightmare anytime soon.

In Trestman's case, that human element has a good amount to do, indeed, with lack of previous experience as head coach.  He strikes us as a thoughtful, smart man, but how well he learns the ropes at this level and how well he improves his decision-making will determine the Bears' success for the foreseeable future.  Obviously, studying, assessing and reflecting on his coaching decisions are keys to that learning and improvement.  But he may need coaching and mentoring himself, particularly in how to account for that human element - that is, his own football intuition, thinking style and cognitive ability - vis-a-vis football analytics.

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

The NHL is Surging in Value

Maple Leafs are most valuable NHL team

The average NHL team now has an enterprise value (equity plus net debt) of $413 million, 46% more than a year ago. For the first time since Forbes began tracking NHL team values in 1998, three of the league’s five most valuable teams–Toronto Maple Leafs($1.15 billion), Montreal Canadiens ($775 million), Vancouver Canucks ($700 million)–are Canadian. The New York Rangers ($850 million) and defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks ($625 million) are the two U.S. teams to make the top five. And this is also the first time that every Canadian franchise ranks among the top 16 in the 30 team league. 

Why is this so important for the NHL? Because hockey was born in Canada. Nurtured there. And it is where the majority of the game’s stars are born and hone their skills. In Canada, hockey is not just another professional sport. The ice is where character is measured. Hockey isn’t a religion in Canada. It isthe religion. This passion delivers at the turnstiles–regardless of market size.

Reference: The NHL's Most Valuable Teams.

I'd like to believe that the Blackhawks have had a significant contribution to this NHL surge.  They play hockey with finesse - skating agility and speed, puck handling and passing wizardry, and scoring prowess - rather than fight or brawn.  Moreover, they have proven themselves to be tough players as well.  In virtually every playoff game last season, opposing teams have outhit them.  Still they endured, and came away with the Stanley Cup championship.

It baffled me that opposing coaches, especially Claude Julien of the Bruins, kept at this hard hitting strategy through their final loss in that Cup-winning Game 6 last June.  It didn't work.  Specifically his Bruins laid out quite a heavy artillery in the first period, and Blackhawks weathered the blitzkreig with just a 1-0 deficit.  By the second period, the Bruins were noticeably worn down, and were consequently vulnerable to those thrilling two goals in 17 seconds by the Blackhawks in the waning minute of that fateful Game 6.

These findings from Forbes make sense:  While markets in US cities are big, the hockey markets in Canada are bigger for NHL teams.  So should the Coyotes, Panthers and Lightning relocate to Canadian cities?  It bears serious consideration for owners, if it hasn't yet.  

Expect the NHL to become more popular, and thus more valuable, as TV deals, ticket sales, and retail under gird its business model.  Top players will garner more endorsements, and supplement their incomes with off-ice earnings, as do NFL and NBA players.

Thank for you reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

Bulls at Crossroads as a Team

Click here to watch the video

I posted this commentary on the Chicago Bulls Google+ community on November 27th 2013:

GM [Gar Forman] says Bulls are well-positioned for the future.  Thibs [Coach Tom Thibodeau] will keep coaching hard and playing to win.  But Jurko [ESPN John Jurkovic], plus other analysts, are saying: "Blow the whole thing up."

Here's the thing: DRose's [Derrick Rose] body was already wearing down, long before his torn ACL.  He missed about 30 games in the 2011-2012 season due to assorted injuries.  Even before he tore his MCL, he had two different injuries so early in the season.  It's super-exciting to watch his explode and elevate, but I'm not sure his body can take more of this.  For his long-term health, he has to adjust his play.

Right now, there's no telling that he'll be ready, physically or mentally, at the start of the 2014-2015 season.  He and his camp may decide to miss half or more of it.  How good can he really be, with two bum knees?  He's such a gifted athlete, but at the end of the day, he's human like everyone else.

So where does that leave the Bulls?  Even with DRose the Bulls were very good contenders for the title, but improbable for the actual title, because they're missing a 2nd superstar.  The front office may not blow the whole thing up, as Jurko suggests, but we can expect Deng to be gone before the season's end.  

Last night, the Bulls (now 7-8) could not beat a bad Cavaliers team (now 5-12).  The reason?  Because they're a bad team in their own right.  Much as Forman may deny it, and spin a positive yarn for the media, the only thing the Bulls are well-positioned for is mediocrity.   

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

Run Defense and Penalties Killed the Bears

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On November 25th 2013, I posted a lengthy commentary on the Chicago Bears community. It was a day after an aggravating 21-42 loss to the St. Louis Rams. It generated an even lengthier discussion among a few of us members.

What a roller coaster game! It's like the Bears were expecting a 1 PM start, then found out they had to get on the field, before they were ready. But after such an embarrassing start, they got things settled down for two quarters, and got back in the game. Then the wheels totally came off ...

Here are stats I was keying on, after the game:

I.

Our defense is atrocious, and is, not surprisingly, dead last in the NFL against the run at 145.2 yards/game. They gave up 258 yards to a Rams team that was, at best, a middling running team (15th, at 113.8 yard/game). Just inexcusable! And they're going to face AP [Vikings' Adrian Peterson] on Sunday (yikes).
But what I found surprising were: (a) Broncos (27th, 378.0 yards/game) have a worse overall defense than the Bears (26th, 376.0 yards/game). Which doesn't bode well for Peyton & Co.'s Super Bowl aspirations. (b) Our pass defense isn't all that bad: 13th, at 230.8 yard/game. This stat may be misleading, though, because teams may be slanting towards the run against the Bears. For example, pass-rush plays for the Rams yesterday: 22-29. 

II.

Penalties, penalties. They made me totally insane! e.g., On Devin's return TD, on Forte's rushing TD... Of course there were some questionable calls on both sides, but for that last Bears TD, in the red zone, the referees seemed to be on our side.

Bears are one of the least penalized teams in the NFL: 9th, at 5.7 penalties/game. Some of the broadcasters lauded the Bears for their discipline and focus, e.g., just a couple of false start penalties, early in the season. But what's disturbing is, In the last 3 games, the Bears are the 2nd most penalized team in the league: at 9.3 penalties/game. They were nailed 10 times, for 84 yards, yesterday. What the hey is going on, man?

III.

Finally, the silver lining in all of this? Bears (6-5) are still very much in the playoff hunt! But, Bears fans, don't be fooled, when sports reporters say they're tied for the Division lead: They are not! Because Lions (6-5) own the tiebreaker, the Bears have to finish with a better record to win the Division. This is the Bears' best chance to get in. The wild card picture is tougher, because they have to do better than really good teams, like Cardinals (7-4) and 49ers (6-4, currently; they play Redskins tonight).

Of course the Packers (5-5-1) are right there in the playoff hunt, too. If Rodgers gets back earlier than expected, say goodbye to the Bears and Lions.

I don't know how Trestman and staff are going to do this: Defense must keep opponents to under 30 points, and keep RBs closer to their season average in rush yards given up. Some of you in the community made a good point, that we need Cutler to win, if our defense is going to give up 30+ points. Otherwise, a McCown-led offense is methodic and reliable at scoring in the mid- to upper-20s. Plus, as a team, Bears have to get back to their mental discipline and focus, and minimize costly penalties. You don't need to have any special talent to avoid holding and illegal blocks!

Whew, what do you guys think?

I've been saying all along that Mel Tucker is the dynamite that destroyed our Defense. This is the worst Defensive team we've had in my lifetime of 38 years. His Defensive play calling puts players out of position before the ball is even snapped and the players seem to be injuring themselves trying their best to cover the enormous amount of ground that is asked of them. Tucker was kicked out of Cleveland and chased out of Jacksonville. (Those are some pathetic teams right there!) Yes we need some players and players to make plays, but having this BUM show the NFL ropes to players like Bostic is going to ruin the kid. Tucker has to go in order for this team to get better!

Do you think Trestman is tough enough to make that tough call on Tucker? If not, I expect Emery to step in.

Trestman went through 4 defensive Coordinators in 5 years while in Canada. I would almost expect the same here. I've got my fingers crossed that Singletary will be job hunting when the season is over.

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tucker is a solid d. coordinator. In Cleveland and Jacksonville his defenses were top 5 or better. Tucker runs a 3-4 scheme. The bears are currently a 4-3 tampa 2 defense.

The dynamite that destroyed the bears defense is horrible drafting, no depth and age. Expect major turnover when they switch schemes. 

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Cleveland fans were calling for his head. And in the 2012 season Tuckers Defense ranked 30th against the rush and 22nd against that pass. He had 4 years in Jacksonville....so it was his players and his calls. Our stats now rate similar to his last season stats in Jacksonville. Any other answers to this similarity?

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I think too many injuries on defense. 3 DTs, 2 LBs, a CB and a NB. They've got guys playing who were on the couch a few weeks ago. What can we expect? How can Tucker be blamed for this?

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the players on defense are garbage. Major Wright and Chris Conte are awful safeties. James Anderson is good on pass coverage, but horrible on run defense. Peppers is terrible. Only decent players are Paea, Briggs, Ozougwu and Jennings. I'll post the defensive player grades and you tell me who is great. 

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So what you're saying is that Phil Emery is to blame? He's not competent enough to draft players? Yet all last season and last year our fans praised this guy. 

Conte wasn't an all-star but was by no means horrible. Major Wright was considered progressing. So in 1 season, Peppers (a HOF player) forgot how to tackle, Jennings forgot how to intercept a ball and we can't stop a 3rd string RB from running all over us like the 2nd coming of Walter Payton? 

Tucker is a BUM! He came from 2 teams that are NFL floor mats and was sold to us as a defensive genius. I'm not buying it. 

Let's just hope Trestman stays true to form and fires another D Cord this season. He went through 4 in 5 seasons in Canada.

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I only mentioned injured players, don't get me started on the safeties...How bad are the backup safeties that they can't crack the starting lineup with those two bums out there?

My two-cents is Tucker is very much trying to get a feel for these players, injuries and all, and for offenses he's seeing. But he doesn't adjust very quickly or very well. The two weeks off did him and his staff a world of good, it seems, as the defense played better against the Packers, Lions and Ravens. But my guess is that the Rams studied film very well, and knew how to exploit the weaknesses in the defense big time, including Tucker's difficulty adjusting. Recently Trestman gave Tucker a big vote of confidence, but I'm not sure if that means anything, really. Bottomline: Emery has a lot of work to do with the defense, and it may take him two years to get it corrected. My guess is that he's more or less decided to "tag" Cutler, so he can focus as much as possible on the defense. 

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In 2 years Emery's changed out 7 offensive starters, 8 if you count Bitten who plays on a regular basis. The only starters left from pre-Emery are Cutler, Forte, Garza and Earl Bennet. 

As of now on defense there are 3 rookies and 2 2nd year guys starting or playing regularly. If any of them make the leap that Jeffery did that will be a plus. And based on what Emery did to the offense, I expect we'll see 4 or 5 more new starters next season. 

And I agree he will tag Cutler - he has to in order to fix the rest of the roster.

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The postscript is this: The Bears just lost to the Vikings 20-23 in OT.  This, after leading 20-10 through three quarters.  They settled down the costly penalties (nailed six times for 51 yards).  But the run defense?  Another big stinker at 246 yards given up, 211 yard to AP alone.  With the Lions (7-5) winning on Thanksgiving Day, the Bears (6-6) are now a longshot at making the playoffs.  

Ah, well, at least it was a thrilling OT game, at the end of the day, and as a football fan I love that.  

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD