ESPN NFL Predictions (2012)

ESPN assembled 16 of its football experts last August, and recorded their predictions for the 2012-2013 NFL season, which just ended with the Super Bowl winning Baltimore Ravens.

In the four tables below, I cross-referenced their predictions with the actual winners, and noted the correct ones in green and the incorrect ones in red.  

The results

From the Super Bowl Champion at the top of the column, down to the Defensive Rookie of the Year (ROY), plus the AFC and NFC wild cards counting as two each, there are 19 line items of predictions.  The best that these analysts did was eight correct predictions (8/19):  Brandt, Chadiha, Graziano and Seifert.  One had just 3/19 correct:  Williamson. 

There were three line items where all 16 analysts were correct:  AFC East, AFC South, and NFC North, where they tapped the Patriots, Texans and Packers to win their respective Divisions.  Unfortunately, there were more line items - seven - where none of them got it correct:  NFC East, NFC wild cards, NFC champion, Coach of the year, MVP and Offensive ROY.

The topper is that not a single one of the analysts predicted the Super Bowl winner correctly:  9/16 saw the Packers with the Lombardi Trophy on hand, but the Cheese didn't even make it to the NFC Conference Finals.  2/16 picked teams - Cowboys and Eagles - that didn't make it to the playoffs.  If there is any consolation prize, it's this:  5/16 picked teams - Patriots and Falcons - that at least made it to the Conference Finals. 

Just for kicks

I found these predictions from Jeremy Dorn, featured columnist for the Bleacher Report, ahead of the NFL season.

Dorn did better than his ESPN counterparts.  He offered predictions for just 15 of 19 line items, and he ended up with 9/15 correct.  On only these particular items, the best that an ESPN analyst did was 8/15, and this time only one did:  Graziano. 

Interestingly

In an article on Bill James Online, the 49ers were overwhelmingly odds-on favorites to secure the big shiny Trophy - based on the Super Bowl Prediction System.  

Just in case you haven't heard of Bill James, he's the statistical and research genius in baseball, who's revolutionized how the game is viewed by offering up analyses on how the game actually works.  His work is the underpinning of the book and film 'Moneyball.' 

Interestingly, the one team that failed to win a game with a 10-category advantage was the first team with that advantage, the Vikings in the 1969-1970 season’s Super Bowl. The Ravens will attempt to be the first team to beat those odds in 43 years.

Apparently, the Ravens not only fulfilled their destiny, but also bucked statistical analysis.  

My conclusions

The prediction complexity 

There are hazards to making predictions, because the future holds so many variables that, in the present, we cannot see.  Even if we can see them, it's very difficult to determine how they will all turn out.

Who would've thought that Adrian Peterson, virtually just months removed from knee surgery, would have such a kick-ass year and eventually garner the MVP?  Andrew Luck was clearly a favorite to win Offensive ROY, but who would've anticipated the rapid rise of Robert Griffin III as an athlete and leader?  Four analysts at least picked the Ravens to come out of the AFC Conference Finals, but who actually saw them as Super Bowl champion?

As another example, meteorologists, with their sophisticated instrumentation, algorithms and knowledge, are prone to make errors in predicting the weather, especially the farther they project into the future.  Indeed, in his seminal book 'The Black Swan,' Nassim Nicholas Taleb points out that experts are no better or worse than laypeople in making predictions.

So next year, I plan to get myself and a bunch of buddies to make predictions, and compare ours with those of NFL experts.        

A sense of order and control

Election winners, Academy Awards recipients, economic cycles, sales forecasts.  On and on, we love to know what is going to happen, and there are many, in turn, who love to tell us what is going to happen.  Perhaps it gives us a sense of foresight, order and control, because otherwise the future is a daunting phenomenon.

To a large extent, unfortunately, that sense is suspect at best and false at worst. 

Experts are still experts

I'd be curious to know what these NFL analysts at ESPN think about the outcomes of their predictions.  Even more so, I'd be curious to know what system, process or criteria they used to make their predictions.

In any event, these poor outcomes do not undermine their expertise, given the complexity of predicting things and the limits of our tools.  For example, Clayton is known as the professor among the lot, because he's so plugged-in to what is happening in the NFL and he speaks in spitfire pace and with such knowledge and authority.  He very much remains that, even as he was positively middle-of-the-pack with a 6/19 showing. 

In a way, then, Taleb was right:  Predictions level the playing field for all of us. 

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

Sports in the Fast Lane

Standout race car driver, Dan Wheldon, died in a horrific crash on October 16th 2011, in the racing finale of the IZOD IndyCar Series that year.

As a boy, I used to love watching the Indianapolis 500 on TV, but I just didn’t followed this sport since becoming an adult. So why was I glued to YouTube, watching the taped telecast of this explosive pile-up? Over and over. In fact I poured over the entire telecast, lasting two hours from the excitement of before the race to the emotional five-lap tribute by the remaining drivers. The MailOnline recounted all of this in words, photos and video.

It was this:  I was traumatized. I was horrified by the fact that once this crash was triggered, there was absolutely nothing that Wheldon and other drivers could do. At a super fast speed of about 220 MPH, violent death occurs literally in fractions of a second. You could only hope for the best and let the physics of the crash carry it to its finish.

I was stunned at the thought of his head hitting the wall and pavement with great impact, and the utter destruction of both human and machine. I watched these videos repeatedly, because emotionally I was trying to get a grip over something I had no control. I was thankful that social media and internet technology allowed me to do this.

Wheldon lived in the fast lane, and was very successful at it. There was a strange irony to the fact, of course, that that very fast lane claimed him for its own.  May you continue to rest in the stillness - and slowness - of peace. May God keep you and your family in His blessing.

Thank you for reading, and let me what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

Gregg Popovich and David Stern Were Both Wrong

By virtue of his tenure and success, San Antonio Spurs Head Coach, Gregg Popovich, has earned the respect of NBA insiders and fans. I am among them, and nothing I write about here really diminishes my admiration for the guy.

By now it's the talk of the sports world, that is, his radical decision to give a handful of stars a game off last week. Doubly amazing is NBA Commissioner David Stern's staggering $250,000 fine of the Spurs.

(image credit)

I think both were wrong

Yeah, I heard the rationale behind Pop's decision:  An unusually heavy schedule.  Aging stars.  Coach's prerogative.  But professional basketball is about putting your best players on the court (unless they're otherwise unable to play), and about professional athletes playing and putting in their best effort throughout the contest (regardless of who's winning or losing). 

Coach Pop breached an important sports value.

If I were a member of the Miami Heat, who missed competing with the likes of Tim Duncan last week, I'd feel disrespected by the Spurs.  I'd be terribly disappointed if I were a fan, coming to the American Airlines Arena and paying premium fees to see two of the best star-loaded teams in the NBA.

I wonder how Heat star LeBron James actually felt.  I wonder, too, how Tim Duncan et al. felt, for that matter, about not playing.  

In turn, the Commissioner's penalty was overly heavy-handed.  Almost draconian, in my eyes.

I won't squabble about the amount per se, but more about the seemingly authoritarian way he delivered the decision. Here's former Orlando Magic Head Coach, Stan Van Gundy, speaking about Stern's leadership, as quoted by SI writer Chris Mannix:

"And if you are a true leader in David Stern's position, then lead. Take the moral high ground and get out and persuade people. Lead on the issue. David Stern is not able to do that because, especially among the coaches, he has not built that kind of trust or shown them that kind of respect. What he is stuck with is bully tactics, a my way or the highway approach, and that's just not going to work in this case."

The NBA coaches can, of course, speak to this much better than many of us.  But if Van Gundy's claim is true, then it girds my sentiments about the man behind the hefty fine. 

(image credit)

Surely there was a better way

Pop could've tempered his aging stars' minutes, perhaps more than he already had, before their game off.   Maybe he had done this already, too, but we could've tempered practice time as well or given them practice off.  

If there is evidence to believe that the Spurs got the unfair treatment with the scheduling, then that is a different matter altogether.  Their management could've arranged a private meeting with the Commissioner to address and resolve it.  

On Stern's part, a similarly private discussion, and more concerted investigation of the matter, would've been better.  It remained his privilege to dole out such reprimand on things deemed not in the best interest of the NBA.  But to Van Gundy's point, it would've shown better leadership on his part.  

Otherwise this incident left a triple loss in its wake:  for the Spurs, the NBA, and the fans.  

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

Fired, Wired and Hired in Los Angeles

Mike Brown, fired

Mike Brown

The Los Angeles Lakers wasted no time in this young NBA season. They invested heavily in building up the team during the off-season, and they must win another championship this year. This is the sort of pressure CEOs and their organizations experience, and if they don't produce, they're out much quicker than they can imagine. Coach Mike Brown obviously found himself on the short end of the stick, as the beloved 'Lake Show' stumbled badly at the season's start.

Reference:  With no time to waste, Lakers make right decision in firing Mike Brown

Phil Jackson, wired. 

Phil Jackson

I am a Chicago Bulls fan, and Phil Jackson was singularly responsible for an outstanding 1990s, what, with two 'three-peat' championships. He followed that up with a 'three-peat' and a 're-peat' with the Los Angeles Lakers in the 2000s. That's a remarkable 11 championships in two decades of basketball, where the odds of any coach winning just one is virtually miniscule. I love the Zen Master, so it seemed that he was all set to return to the bench to bring that storied 'Lake Show' back on the championship track. Seemed.

Reference:  West Side: Jackson was Lakers' man

Mike D'Antoni, hired. 

Mike D'Antoni

Mike D'Antoni left the New York Knicks in a fiasco around Carmelo Anthony last year. I don't follow his coaching or his teams, but was shocked to hear that the Los Angeles top brass chose him over Phil Jackson. If an NBA championship were a Nobel Prize, there is absolutely no other coach in the league you'd seek for advice, research, leadership and results than the Zen Master. He has 11 such 'prizes.' Still, this article opened my eyes to the prospects that Mike D'Antoni was actually a better fit with the Lakers and offered a better chance for that 'prize.'

Reference:  East Side: D'Antoni was right pick

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

For the Love of Hockey

My family and I were the third of three sets of close relatives to emigrate from Manila to Chicago in 1968.  Three of my cousins and I were about the same age, and we were all active boys.  Hockey was the first sport we played together, and it was on the baseball diamond turned skating rink at Smith's Field on the west side.  They managed to get proper hockey skates, while I happened to wear figure skates that had parallel blades and customary teeth at the front. 

A Filipino boy doesn't usually find himself on the ice, so it was my first effort at skating.  As it turned out, my natural skating motion was more that of a hockey player than a figure skater.  Practically, this meant I stumbled often on those darn teeth and sometimes onto my face.  I was too graceless at first and too stiff from the cold Chicago winter to brace myself from the fall.  With proper skates not quite in the offing at the time, I wore a football helmet to keep more bruises at bay.

Within three years, all of our parents moved us to the suburbs, and I was playing little league hockey in Arlington Heights.  With a full complement of gear and uniform, I came to really love hockey, even as my cousins ventured away from the sport.  I loved the speed of being on the ice, and the skating motion had a grace that walking or running couldn't quite match.  I became good enough at it to win two trophies in that first year of organized play.

From old heartbreak to new thrill

Forty years ago the NHL had little play on TV.  That was fine, as we had sports news highlights and our beloved Tribune.  One of my best family-cum-sports memories was of my father and me, listening on the radio to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup, between our Chicago Blackhawks and the Montreal Canadiens.  Picture this.  It was a steamy May evening in 1971, as we sat on the third floor porch in the back of our Chicago apartment, the radio situated between us.

Oh, that game was a heartbreak!  It was a hard-fought series between two great teams that were very well-matched for Lord Stanley.  Still, the Blackhawks were up 2-0, then 3-2, in the series.  They were even winning 2-0 in that Game 7, before the Canadiens scored 3 unanswered goals to win on our home ice.
      

We Blackhawks fans had to wait 39 years, before our guys could hoist Lord Stanley high above the ice (2010).  I was living in Dubai, and it was an Australian friend who said, "Hey Ronnie, congratulations on your Stanley Cup!"  "It was a boyhood thrill," I smiled at Lance.

Blackhawks Classics during the lockout

So it's with displeasure that there is no NHL right now.  After consecutive management-labor disputes with the NFL and the NBA last year, the NHL followed suit this year with its lockout.  Three major play stoppages in a relatively short period of time don't bode well for American professional sports, but this matter warrants study for another article.   

Like scores of sports fans across the world, we Americans love watching our athletes have at it on the field, court and rink.  So I am grateful that our local Comcast Sportsnet is airing Blackhawks Classics. 

It makes perfect sense, doesn't it.  TV executives surely can work out agreements to air more of such games.  From those involved directly in the sport, to what I call auxiliary businesses, and of course us fans, it's a complex but exciting ecology that we've all fashioned.  Bars and restaurants can show those games.  Perhaps even a couple of vendors can be on hand.  Some advertisers would be glad to get on the bandwagon.  All of this is already going on, for sure, but I think more of it can take place and thus benefit a lot more people.  

That heartbreak series, notwithstanding, my father and I would love to watch every game of that 1971 championship.  From listening to a staticky radio, to watching on his super-HD large-screen TV, the obligatory beers on hand, of course, we'd be thrilled.

Life would be good.

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

Bulls Joakim Noah in Burger Mode

The Chicago Bears have Peanut Tillman in strip-the-football beast mode.  The Chicago Bulls have Joakim Noah going beast mode, too.  Averaging nearly a double-double with 16.0 points and 9.8 rebounds, and generally bounding up and down the court as if he were still overcoming the acne years of adolescence.  

This article isn't about his all-star play, though, but that burger heave-ho in the waning seconds of a recent game with the Orlando Magic.  "Stick with this one, because it's hilarious," Ben Golliver of Sports Illustrated wrote, and I'll second that motion. 

Some Magic players were in a haughty uproar about it.  One of them hoped that such a despicable act never recur on hallowed basketball courts.  Oh, the horror of Noah trying to win a free burger for the fans!

Coach Tom Thibodeau apparently gave Noah a talking-to as well, though as usual he's discreet and respectful with what he shares in the media.

Anyone else pissed off about this?

Well, I'm here to tell you, Take a chill pill, man, and give the guy a break!

NBA is a business

I'm sure there are many basketball purists out there who do talk about respecting the game and following its conventions, written and unwritten.  But pure has to be defined with the media-rich, multimillion-dollar stakes in mind.  One reason the NBA has been so successful is its marketing and promotions campaign, and the Bulls struck a great deal when McDonald's agreed to give the fans a free Big Mac, if the team broke 100 points.  

By the way, the Bulls are hardly a scoring machine.  They're cut in the mold of Coach Thibs, who's instilled a defense-first mindset among his players.  So maybe the marketing genius in the Bulls organization ought to reset the threshold with Mickey D's to something like, say, 90 points.    

No harm done

Look, Noah is deadly serious about his game, but is a spirited presence on the court.  He has a quirky personality, too.  It's what makes him entertaining to watch.  So when that quirkiness gets the better of him, now and then, I say, So what?

That game with the Magic was well on-hand anyway.  No way they could've overcome a 6-point deficit in those closing seconds, so Noah's maligned three-point heave was actually a harmless thing and he meant no disrespect with it.

Especially for a guy whose every moment on- and off-the-court is a bad-hair day. 

Everyone loves a giveaway

The lowest paid NBA player probably makes more money in one year than do the vast majority of fans watching them in their stadium, drinking at the bar, or lounging on the couch.  But here's the kicker, It's fans, like those who were rallying for a free Big Mac, who help inflate the bulging wallets on those players' behinds.

I say Noah was actually awesome for trying to trigger that giveaway.  True, there were 20,000 fans disappointed, as Golliver wrote, but they all loved him for the try.

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

Not Fair for Richard Dent to Blame Mike Ditka

Richard Dent blames Mike Ditka for the Chicago Bears' failure to win another Vince Lombardi trophy, after such a crushing victory in Super Bowl XX.  They were poised to win at least two more, and it was very disappointing and frustrating to watch them fall short.  Repeatedly.

Ditka needed to adapt his style

My first reaction, honestly, was to agree with him.

The fiery, in-your-face style of Da Coach worked perfectly with his team.  Just one loss in a dominant 1985-1986 season, and just 10 points surrendered through an unrelenting playoff march.  But to sustain that championship run required a more flexible, soft-pedaled tact, I thought, at least in some situations and with some players.  A CEO who succeeds at starting up or turning around a company through a hard-nosed approach has to shift gears over time, and focus more on balancing and reconciling multiple, perhaps competing stakeholder interests.  Ditka didn't adapt.

Ditka is an unrivaled winner

My second reaction was more measured and thoughtful, as I decided to research the matter.

Ditka's winning percentage of .631 over 11 seasons (1982 - 1992) makes him the unrivaled winningest Bears Head Coach in the post-George Halas era.  That's to the present season with Lovie Smith, sports fans!  Even Papa Bear's record in his fourth stint at the helm (1958 - 1967) fell short of Iron Mike's at .588.

So anyone can call Ditka any name, but 'loser' cannot be one of them. 

Jim McMahon was the starting QB, and played in more games than any other backup, in the three seasons after their Super Bowl.  The Punky QB was often injured, unfortunately, and never seemed to regain the magic touch he had in the run-up to the Super Bowl.

So the Doug Flutie bit that Dent focused on was, at worst, a blip on the radar.  Hardly anything that could be pinned on Da Coach.

Ditka led the Bears to seven playoff appearances during his stint, and the team had the following regular season records:

1. 1984 - 1985 (10 - 6)
2. 1985 - 1986 (15 - 1)
3. 1986 - 1987 (14 - 2)
4. 1987 - 1988 (11 - 4)
5. 1988 - 1989 (12 - 4)
6. 1990 - 1991 (11 - 5) 
7. 1991 - 1992 (11 - 5)

You see, they were indeed poised to win multiple Super Bowls.  Instead, they came away with a positively mediocre .500 record in these post-seasons:  6 - 6.

Choke job in the playoffs

Ah, there's the rub.

There are teams, maybe just certain players, who are beasts during the regular season, but are more like lame ducks in the playoffs.  They struggle to show up, or they simply choke!  Think:  Greg Maddox, Chicago Cubs.  Think:  Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (cf. his brother Eli).  Think more recently, way premature playoff exits for top teams (2011 - 2012):  Greenbay Packers (football), Vancouver Canucks (hockey), and Chicago Bulls (basketball).

Only athletes and coaches can speak directly to this, while the rest of us can only imagine it.  Playoffs aren't  just more intense, more physical, more daunting than the regular season.  But they say it's a different atmosphere altogether.  Almost like an altered sport that requires athletes to perform with an even more ungodly fortitude, discipline and skill.   

A friend on Facebook reminded me that defensive genius, Buddy Ryan, and Mike Ditka were feuding through their Super Bowl run.  Apparently Ditka was none too happy, when the players hoisted Ryan on their shoulders as well, after their defensive clamp-down of the Patriots.  Maybe that was a reason for the Bears' one-and-done, as Ryan fled for Philadelphia in 1986 and with him the vaunted 46 defense.  

Many reasons for the Bears' one-and-done

We may never know the exact reason for it, actually.  But here are some points I am certain about:

• No one reason accounted for it, but multiple reasons.
• It was team failure to show up, when it mattered most. 
• It is patently unfair to pin this on Ditka, as Dent just did.

But for one magical season, the Chicago Bears - characters and all - gave us fans the thrill of a lifetime!

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

Sources for my facts and figures are below.  I invite my readers to correct anything I got wrong.

List of Chicago Bears Seasons
List of Chicago Bears Head Coaches
List of Chicago Bears Starting QBs