Saturday, April 27, 2013

Blackhawks Season - Game by Game


Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, and the rest of the Blackhawks have only One Goal (image credit)
The Chicago Blackhawks had a very special, record-setting performance, in this lockout-shortened 2012-2013 season.  For the sake of posterity, I collated the ESPN stats overview and the NHL recaps, box scores and highlights for each of their 48 games. The game-by-game recap is hyperlinked to the subheadings.

Cold Steel on Ice, Hot Start

I was bemoaning the lockout, and based on behind-the-scenes reports, I was sure we were going to lose the NHL season. It was a pleasant surprise to hear otherwise, and just as surprising was the quick start after the announcement. It was a strenuous schedule, as expected, and the Blackhawks spent 5 of the first 7 games on the road and 4 out of 7 games in back-to-back sets.



Game 1


Game 2


Game 3


Game 4


Game 5


Game 6


Game 7


Jonathan Toews scored a goal in an opening-night win against the Stanley Cup Champion Kings (image credit)
Corey Crawford was radar on the puck in the long-waited Game 1 of the NHL season (image credit)
Heat Rises in the Winter

Something special was happening, but we hardly knew it. The Blackhawks rattled off a 6-game winning streak to start off the season, and had a perfect point streak going into February. But my family and I were taking care of an ailing mother, and watching hockey games wasn't a luxury we could enjoy. Still, it was palpably exciting.



Game 8


Game 9


Game 10












Marian Hossa scored two goals in a shootout victory against archrival Canucks in Game 16 (image credit)
Andrew Shaw battled for the puck, then scored the shootout game-winner on the Canucks (image credit)
The Talk of Sports

By now, the Blackhawks were the talk of the NHL, and as March progressed they were one of the lead stories on ESPN Sports Center. They set the record for the longest point streak to start the season, and they were being compared to the Flyers' longest-ever point streak at 35 games. The Blackhawks finished the 2011-2012 season on a 6-game point streak, so at the end of February they were at 26 games. It felt as if they could always find a way to win the game, no matter what. 








Game 25


Game 26


Game 27


Game 28


Game 29


Game 30


Game 31


Game 32


Game 33


Game 34


Daniel Carcillo celebrated his last-minute, game-winning goal against the Avalanche (image credit)
Joel Quenneville guided his team to a record 24-game point streak to start the season (image credit)
Cream Rises to the Top

The point streak ended with that mile-high shellacking by the Avalanche on March 8th.  The Blackhawks then entered a phase of mediocrity, as they found themselves prone to blowing leads with that dreaded 3rd period curse.  Coach Joel Quenneville didn't allow that to last too long, however, as the team righted the ship.  They finished the season on a strong stretch, and won the President's Trophy with the best record in the league.



Game 35


Game 36


Game 37


Game 38


Game 39


Game 40


Game 41


Game 42


Game 43


Game 44


Game 45


Game 46


Game 47



Viktor Stalberg celebrated after scoring a nifty wraparound against the Red Wings in Game 40 (image credit)
Brandon Saad battled for positioning in a shootout victory against the Red Wings (image credit)
Enjoy reliving a season for the ages, Blackhawks fans!

Next up:  The Stanley Cup Playoffs!

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

Saturday, April 13, 2013

Waiting for Derrick Rose


Waiting for Godot

Estragon struggles with his boots, and after a few moments he sighs "Nothing to be done."  His friend Vladimir muses "I'm beginning to come 'round to that opinion. All my life I've tried to put it from me, saying Vladimir, be reasonable, you haven't yet tried everything. And I resumed the struggle."

So begins Samuel Beckett's iconic existential play "Waiting for Godot."

Aside from the occasional lengthy monologue, it's a play marked by quips that become repartee for Gogo and Didi, their endearing nicknames, and with others they encounter.  The dialogue moves quickly, or at least that was how I read it, years ago when I was a university student.

In truth, Beckett captured well the changing rhythm of everyday life - sometimes clipped and spitfire, sometimes pensive, slow and tedious.  Life, he seemed to say, is what happens when we keep waiting for someone who never comes.

(image credit)
Waiting for Derrick Rose

Rose severely injured his left ACL on April 28th 2012, in the Bulls' first game of the playoffs.  He had had an injury-plagued season, but the team welcomed his return once again and looked to make a deep run in the post-season.

It was a shock, to say the least, and while the Bulls had the talent to capture that first series against the 76ers, they didn't recover quickly enough, psychologically speaking, and entered the off-season in a sudden thud.

Early last month, ESPN writer Melissa Isaacson broke the news that Rose's physician cleared him to return to the lineup.  In other words, physically he could resume competitive basketball play.

What ensued, however, was a veritable farce, played out in the media and among fans.

Weeks after that pivotal report, there is still no Rose on the floor.  I began to think about him in the vein of "Waiting for Godot."  Godot is a real figure, referenced as such in the play, but because we don't ever meet him, he might as well be mythic or symbolic.      

Day after day, since that report, there is inevitably one reporter at least asking Coach Tom Thibodeau, 'When is Derrick coming back?'  The no-nonsense coach responds, duly patient and unrelentingly consistent:   'Derrick will come back, when he's ready to come back.  There is no timetable for his return.'

But the question comes back, in its own ridiculously laughable persistence.  The fact is, we don't know the answer, and apparently Rose doesn't, either.  He has left it to God to decide when.  In an American culture, characterized by certainty, logic and precision, waiting yet not knowing are positively  maddening.

We're in a "Waiting for Godot" existential drama vis-a-vis Derrick Rose.

Losing the Past

Motivational posts on Facebook tell us to live in the present.  Don't dwell on the past, and don't worry about the future.  Fine.  But our present is very much anchored in the past.  So take that past away, and we live as if we stand on sand, at the waters' edge, and the ocean draws the sand rapidly out from under our feet as the wave retreats.

Estragon and Vladimir lose their grip on the past, when they aren't sure if they were there yesterday.  For a moment, they entertain the possibility that Godot came, but that they missed him.  Also, Estragon finally pulls off his boots, because they hurt his feet, but then the next day he forgets where he put them.

Moreover, as if to cause more discombobulation for the two friends, a boy comes by, one day, with a message from Godot:  'He will come tomorrow.'  But that boy returns the next day, denies that he was there before, and reassures the gentlemen that Godot will come tomorrow.

You see the existential angst of this.  Without the past, the continuity of time is broken, and tomorrow is always tomorrow, and of course tomorrow will never be today.  If Godot is coming tomorrow, but tomorrow never comes, then really Godot never comes.

Pardon my language, but it's a mindfuck, isn't it.

(image credit)
Forgetting the Past

Rose had surgery on May 12th 2012, and soon thereafter his surgeon, Dr. Brian Cole, offered this report:
"We're at this point very optimistic. We think of recovery as the long process that's in stages. But the short answer is[,] the time frame[,] we believe an athlete of this caliber generally requires[,] is about eight to 12 months. Sometimes shorter, sometimes longer. 
"While he will be at hopefully a very high level at 12 months, it still may take slightly longer for him to be at his pre-injury level. That's not uncommon for athletes of this caliber."
In our eagerness, we've forgotten what he said.  In actuality, however, we're well within this time frame, and Rose is very much on track with his recovery.  We want him back so much that we neglect to take heed.  

Reporters, really, should stop asking Thibodeau their single-tracked question.  But then we fans would have no means for expressing that very question that sits on our tongues on a daily basis.  So because they are our mouthpieces, reporters have to keep asking.

When we step back from this, we see instead that it's less a commentary on Rose, his injury or return, and more on us, just as "Waiting for Godot" is the quintessential allegory for Western Man.
  • How we cannot tolerate waiting.  Recall that prayer:  'God give me patience, and give it to me now!"
  • How disconcerting it is not to know.  Some of us even turn to science, because it offers a reliable heuristic for knowing.
  • We dread wanting something, but not getting it.  It's the ultimate taunt to dangle a carrot in front of us, but to give us no opportunity to grab it.
Nothing Happens

In WH Auden's lyrical yet mournful poem "In Memory of WB Yeats," he writes "For poetry makes nothing happen."  In a way, he wishes, like many of us, that art had the power to bring his beloved fellow poet back or perhaps halt death altogether.  

So, in a similar vein, we might come away from "Waiting for Godot" with the dissatisfying sigh that nothing happened.  Art is no grand mechanism, after all, for making anything happen.  There is wisdom in both Beckett and Auden.  

No one can command anyone to recover.  No physician, psychologist or coach can hasten the time it takes for any injured athlete to return.  The body, and mind as well, recover on their own timeline.  We would like to believe that with treatment or practice, we shorten that timeline.  

But do we really?

Football player, Adrian Peterson, with the Vikings, also suffered an ACL injury.  He came back apparently sooner than expected, and ended up having a season so awesome last year, that he won MVP honors.    

He seemed to have pushed the envelope, so why can't Rose?  Why can't someone grab him by the shoulders, shake sense into the young man's head, and demand that he get back on the court?  He's medically cleared, isn't he?  

I argue that whether it's curtailing recovery time, as Peterson seemed to have done, or staying on recovery time, as Rose is clearly doing, these athletes abide by laws of nature.  They can only do what nature allows them to do, and they cannot do what nature doesn't allow them to do.  It is simply not true that anything is possible.  Some things are, but not everything.  

Whether it's a mental thing or something else, Rose is not yet ready to come back.  Even opposing players like Carmelo Anthony are rallying to his defense.  We can talk and post, we can criticize and cajole, and we can challenge and question, and still nothing happens.  

It is the way it is.

(image credit)
Life Happens

For me, Thibodeau is the epitome of reality.  It's been an up-and-down season, and more injuries have plagued the Bulls across several players.  Even Rose's backup, Kirk Hinrich, has had to sit out games at many stretches.  They've had their stirring, improbable victories against elite teams, like the Heat and Knicks, but they've also descended to the level of the lowly Pistons and Raptors with losses.  

Regardless, though, the game has continued.  Psychologically, some of the Bulls players may have switched off, at certain points in the season, while waiting for Rose, but Thibodeau pushes them back on.  He does so, as if to say 'Life goes on.'  

The Bulls' vaunted defense has been rather porous this year.  Their offense is so vanilla, as to be relatively easy for opponents to defend.  Thibodeau watches like a hawk from the sidelines, and scowls and grimaces when mistakes on the court befuddle him.  But he, of all people, never stopped coaching, just because he, too, wants his superstar player to come back.    

The game goes on, and it's a marvelous game at that, full of thrills and spills.    

What happens in the present, then, for Estragon and Vladimir is far from nothing.  There is conversation between them that, as the play progresses, cements their friendship further.  There is the farcical hat exchange between them, which is light-hearted relief; and this is countered by the cruelty Pozzo inflicts on Lucky, laced with all the dramatic consternation and heartbreak that human slavery brings about.  There is news that Godot beats one hired hand but not the other.  

For better or for worse, life inviolably happens.

Acknowledging the Inevitable

In "Hamlet," the Danish Prince agonizes over what to do about the murder of his father and his after-death visitations.  Unlike "Waiting for Godot," this Shakespearean play is laden with lengthy monologue, twists of metaphor, and literally a play-within-a-play.  

But it was in the following passage that Hamlet signals to us, how he has finally reconciled not so much what he is going to do, but more specifically what fate has in store for him.
Not a whit, we defy augury. There is special providence in the fall of a sparrow. If it be now, 'tis not to come; if it be not to come, it will be now; if it be not now, yet it will come.  The readiness is all.
So where Godot stops, Rose goes on.  That is, he will come back.  It's a matter of when, not a question of if.  Of that, we can be sure, just as Hamlet is sure about the providential fall of a sparrow.

Waiting for Salvation

Beckett denied religious allusions in his play, as some thought, for example, that "Godot" was a pun for "God."

Despite such denial, however, I do believe such allusions are part of the play.  You see, as existential in nature, and therefore a human drama, "Waiting for Godot" speaks to our very notion of savior.  We Christians have Jesus Christ, for example, and we wait for his second coming.  He is endowed with powers to effect our salvation.

Rose is unquestionably a superstar athlete, and his return to the court will undoubtedly improve the Bulls' play as a whole.  Exactly how much improvement, we won't know until he actually returns.

But my points are these:
  1. I've mentioned earlier:  How well each of us acknowledges the unknown and reconciles our waiting speaks volumes about who we are as individuals and what we are as humankind.  
  2. I want to pose this sensitive question:  How much of a savior is Christ?  Just as I wonder how much of an impact Rose alone will actually have, when it comes to the Bulls' ultimate goal of winning a championship, I ask, How do we really know what kind of salvation we can expect to get, at the end of it all?
For me, in the midst of not knowing, the answer is faith and belief.  Personally I do believe in the salvation that lies in Christ.  But questioning, wondering and doubting do not make me any less faithful or believing.  The opportunity to do these things is part-and-parcel of what we have at our disposal.

What makes Waiting for Godot and Waiting for Derrick Rose a farce, at least in certain respects, is the foolishness of endowing either gentleman with savior powers, even mythic or symbolic.  Both are human, and both can only do so much for those who wait for them.

Reconciling the Wait

Maybe just tacitly, Estragon and Vladimir do reconcile the fact of Godot never coming, simply by virtue of their going on with their lives and drawing unwittingly on their friendship, no matter whom they encounter.

If you follow the Bulls, then you know that the players have drawn closer to each other, in Rose's absence, and have proven their heart on the court and their belief in what their coach himself believes in:  Namely, in any given game, no matter who's able to play, they have more than enough to win.

We don't know exactly how the rest of the season and playoffs are going to shake out.  We're still in the midst of this dramatic play.  But Rose himself has warned us that he may sit out the season, and come back next year, instead.

My faith and belief are in the reality and the continuity of our situation, and I am not wedded to any particular date for Rose's return.  I love basketball, and the Bulls make for great drama, and for this I don't have to wait.

(image credit)
Godot will come tomorrow.

Rose will come tomorrow.  That could be tomorrow-tomorrow, or tomorrow-next year.

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD
   

Friday, March 8, 2013

Winning the Mental Game of Cycling!


I was a Tour de France fanatic for years, and learned riding strategies from watching the men in spandex shorts, lycra jerseys, and bumble-bee helmets maneuver the race.  I read articles online from Bicycling and Velo News, and also took to heart whatever advice my pals sent my way.

But in 2009 I lifted my studies of cycling to higher level, focusing it more specifically on my training and diet and on my actual riding strategies.

I moved to Dubai in 2006, and immediately found my way into the active cycling community.  I was already pretty passionate and disciplined about the sport, and without fully knowing what I needed to know, I managed to break four personal bests within my first year of riding there.

  • Mileage for the day, from 100 miles, to 160 miles:  on a long-distance, partly mountainous charity ride from Dubai to Fujairah.
  • Mileage for the year, from a total of 3000 miles, to 3100 miles:  October 2006-October 2007.
  • Average speed on a ride, from 20 MPH, to 21 MPH:  numerous times on our "leisurely" Friday morning rides through metropolitan streets and desert roads.
  • Fastest speed reached, from 38 MPH, to 44 MPH:  a few times on a descent.    

Dubai-Fujairah charity ride for Emirates Association for the Blind (2007)

Improving my turning skills

For the longest time I was nervous cycling through turns.  In Dubai, there were many roundabouts to navigate, and desert sands often gathered around the inner curb.  I dialed down my speed going into these roundabouts, and took a wider turn through them to avoid those scattered sands.  To add to these two mistakes, I relied on my sprinting ability to close the gap, once we exited the roundabouts.  This misjudgment kept me in our double paceline for the first half of the ride, but I was bonked by the second half and often got dropped by the guys.  

The analogy I found most useful in altering my judgment and improving my turning skills was this:  Imagine I had a matchbox with a few matchsticks inside.  Every time I sprinted, I burned one of these matchsticks.  Because of my tentative riding on these turns, I must've sprinted more often than I kept track of and effectively emptied my matchbox of energy, before a tough ride was finished.  

So I consciously focused on my turning skills during our weekly training sessions, and made the following changes:
  • I kept my speed up going into the roundabouts, instead of dialing it down.
  • I followed our double paceline throughout the turn, instead of sliding off and wide.
  • I kept myself more into a tightly-drafting position to minimize gaps in front of me, and thereby minimize any need to burn a matchstick (i.e., sprint).  

Looking through the rider in front

Yes, it's funny, but in our tight formations, we look to be literally on top of each other's ass and back wheel.  Through my rides in Chicago, I was often alone, and didn't have much experience with the sort of rides we did in Dubai.  So it was a novice mistake for me to concentrate too much on the ass and wheel in front of me.  Admittedly I was nervous about riding too closely, and crashing into the rider ahead.

To improve, I physically shifted my gaze from downward to straight ahead, more now on the back and head of that rider and also what was in front of him or her.  This was a dramatic change in strategy.  Now I could survey better what was going on in front of me, and ride accordingly.

One time, for example, I was well-ensconced in a lead pack, and we were burning rubber on the road at over 30 MPH.  At this speed I was in a hyper-concentration mode, or else I'd risk a terrible crash with a mental lapse.  I checked my mind (clear) and my body (strong), so no problem there.  

But the rider in front of me was "losing the wheel" in front of him.  He was struggling to keep up his speed.  I monitored this closely, because I was looking through him, and the second that the gap reached a certain point I quickly accelerated past him.  

It's not just a physical exertion, but a strict mental game, too.  Without precisely quantifying anything, I determined an allowable gap to form in front of him, beyond which I wouldn't have been able to close it myself, once I passed him, without burning off whatever matchsticks I had left in me.  

When he hit the threshold of that allowable gap, I passed him in a flash.  It took just a couple of seconds to do so, saying "On your right!" to alert him and sliding back into the double paceline in perfect stride.  

It was a terrific calculation, and a superb move on my part!

Winning the mental game

I altered quite a lot of my preparations for a ride, but most of it was physical rather than mental.  But these physical improvements helped me tremendously with that strict mental game.  The better I could rely on the endurance and strength of my body, the more I could concentrate on our ride and the better I could judge what strategy to deploy.    

In other words, I kept a good reserve of matchsticks in my box, and essentially avoided getting anywhere near close to "red-lining" my body with lack of oxygen or excess of lactic acid.  This kept my head cleared.

On another ride, our double paceline had long disintegrated, and we were just a bunch of scattered riders with still a long way to go.  Fortunately I managed to draft behind one guy who was tall, and going at the right fast clip, that is, one that I could keep up with.

At this speed, we were actually passing other scattered riders up, as I safely and comfortably kept myself at his wheel.             

Then, out of nowhere, another rider sprinted past us.  Before, my impulse would've been to chase after him.  I felt strong and confident, and of course I caught up to him.  But at great cost to my energy reserves.  

In the split second on this ride, however, I decided to stay on course, and kept drafting behind the tall guy.  Again, without precisely quantifying anything, I knew we were already going at high speed, and surmised that that rider who sprinted out of nowhere had to elevate his speed even higher than ours.  I quickly determined that he was not going to be able to keep that up, and undoubtedly he burned more than a few matchsticks in that strenuous effort.   

Sure enough, in another minute or two, Mr. Tall Guy and I passed up that dude!

Me, at the top of an arduous climb in Musandam, Oman (2009)

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

Saturday, March 2, 2013

Yes to Great Cycling Performance!


The disgraced Lance Armstrong, notwithstanding, cycling is an awesome sport, and it is the one I participate in.  My form in swimming is good, but I'm way too slow, and my shins very much disagree with running, in the same way my digestive system disagrees with milk.  Cycling, on the other hand, fits my body rather well.

It was in the mid-1990s that I took up cycling, and it coincided with my discovering the Tour de France.  It was in the waning years of Miguel Indurain's reign, among his spandex-sporting, lycra-jerseyed mates.  Le Tour is grueling:  daily racing over three weeks, covering 2000+ miles of the scenic yet brutal French landscape.  My July every year was taken up by this race, and it was through telecasts and highlights that my passion took root and my learning built up.

When I moved from Chicago to Dubai in 2006, it was a sport for which I easily found fellow enthusiasts.  A friendly but cagey German - Wolfi - owned a bike shop, and organized early Friday morning rides through metropolitan streets and outlying, desert roads.  (Our weekends in the Middle East were Friday-Saturday.)  These rides were meant to be friendly and leisurely, and it was mainly so in the first half of the ride.  In the second half, though, our double paceline often disintegrated, as guys got chippy and there were bursts of speed everywhere.

Julio, me, Desmond, Janice, Olivier, and Olivier's girlfriend (Hatta mountains, 2006)

No to mountains, yes to flats

I quickly became good friends with a couple - Julio and Janice - and some of their cycling pals, too.  They often went on separate rides on Friday morning, however, mainly for mountain riding.  This was a mistake for me.  I had bulky legs that were meant more for sprinting than climbing, so while socializing was fun,  getting dropped on climbs was not fun.

One time, I was well behind my pals on the climb down and the long ride back to our starting point.  No matter how much I was gassed on the climbs, and lactic acid burning in my legs, I somehow kept my fast-twitch muscles relatively fresh.  So I out-gunned my pals, one by one, on the flats, until there was only Julio up ahead.  I managed to get into his slipstream, and told myself, Just hang on to his wheel (i.e., draft), until I could catch my breath.  Alas, he accelerated, and didn't give me enough time to recover my energy.  I smiled, breathlessly, as he disappeared once again.

After two years, I decided to concentrate on rides with Wolfi, as these were mainly the flats.

No to distance, yes to speed

For a while I couldn't understand why I'd have superb training sessions during the week, but often struggled, and even hit the wall, on those Wolfi rides.  My first instinct was to train harder, but this didn't work.  The problem?  I trained too much and rode too far during the week.  I proudly announced one time that I had ridden about 200 kilometers, and Julio suggested in a matter of fact way that I scale down.

In Chicago, also mainly flat, I worked at long distance riding, such as a century (100 miles).  I commuted to the office on bike, once a week, over 100 miles in one day.  Once or twice more, I'd bike to a train station, take the train downtown, then reverse the order on the way home.  With the riding I did on weekends, I could nail down about 250 miles a week.

Our Wolfi rides were mainly about speed, on the other hand.  For which, as it turned out, my body was much better suited, than either long-distance or mountain climbing.  But this meant altering my training mindset and regimen altogether.  I was unwilling to scale down, at first, but in time I underwent that change:
  • Saturday.  Easy recovery workout, usually on the elliptical machine, for just 30 minutes.
  • Sunday.  This evening training session was the most crucial.  I managed to hitch onto a small group of fast riders, and our riding mimicked that of Friday mornings, that is, a combination of break-the-lactic-threshold and VO2 max periods.  The distance I biked was a half to a third of what I normally did.  
  • Monday.  Another recovery workout, either on the bike or in the gym.
  • Tuesday.  A workout of moderate intensity and duration.  If my body still needed to recover from the Sunday session, I dialed this workout down a notch or two.  
  • Wednesday and Thursday.  Rest days, mainly just T'ai Chi and stretching, plus of course mental and dietary preparations.
  • Friday.  Those awesome but tough Wolfi rides.

Me, training for the Gulf for Good - Borneo Challenge (Emirates Today, 2007)

Yes to full-body weight training

Lifting weights was not a priority for me, but I know it was important to keep my upper body strong.  My lower body, I reasoned, had more than sufficient workouts from cycling.  So I dispensed with squats, leg extensions and hamstring curls, and standing dead lifts.  This was also a mistake.  So how did I alter my training?

I systematically added those lower body workouts, making sure I developed those large muscle groups: hips, buttocks, and thighs.  Such balanced workouts, coupled with my scaled down, but better-honed training rides, made a difference.

I engaged in core exercises, geared specifically for cyclists.  I used to dismissed such exercises as unnecessary, until I learned that the power I exerted on the pedals originated from the core and my core wasn't strong after all.

In addition, a few times I got feedback from my pals that my upper body position on the bike was too extended.  It took a handful of iterations, but I adjusted the handle bars closer in and also shifted my seat forwarded a couple of notches.

Yes to better diet preparations

Dubai was fabulous, because we could all ride year round.  In the winter months, the temperatures hovered in the 70s F, and while the summer was blistering hot, we avoided the peak of it by riding as early as 5:30 AM on those Fridays.  In any season, however, Dubai was often dry, and it served to expose my bad hydration habit.  This was one reason I performed poorly on those Friday rides, and it prompted me to make changes in the quantity and frequency of drinking water.  I'd drink two or three, sometimes four liters, in the office, for example.

My main focus was on complex carbohydrates, but it took a lot of studying my body and performance, and correcting and tweaking my dietary regimen, to come up with this:

One pal wondered if I was consuming enough protein.  I hadn't thought about it very much vis-a-vis cycling.  But in doing research, I realized that my typical diet was relatively low on protein for the amount of strenuous activity I was engaged in.  As an athlete I ate six, sometimes seven small meals a day.  I got into a habit, for example, of eating my meals in a bowl, as opposed to a plate.  But it was unreasonable to expect me to consume 75 grams of protein (one gram per one kilogram of weigh), so I supplemented my diet with protein drinks.

As the week progressed, I shifted to more complex carbohydrates - spaghetti, pasta or macaroni - and less protein.  On most days it was one or two protein drinks a day, but just one or none on Wednesday and Thursday.

Me, after another awesome ride (2009)
Yes to great results!

In my next article, I will detail how I altered my riding strategy.  But for now suffice it to say that these changes to my training resulted in a night-and-day difference in my performance:  From hitting the wall on a regular basis, to consistently hanging with the lead pack.

One time, for example, I was riding well ensconced in our double paceline.  The lead guys and I stayed together, even as we lifted our speed dramatically.  I remember it seeming to be very quiet, as I could hear the purr of wheel, chain and gears.  I remember having to slow down a bit, in fact, as I would've otherwise run into the rider in front of me.  I also remember feeling calm in my breath and pulse, as if we were actually riding slowly.

I was in the zone! 

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

ESPN NFL Predictions (2012)


ESPN assembled 16 of its football experts last August, and recorded their predictions for the 2012-2013 NFL season, which just ended with the Super Bowl winning Baltimore Ravens.

In the four tables below, I cross-referenced their predictions with the actual winners, and noted the correct ones in green and the incorrect ones in red.  




The results

From the Super Bowl Champion at the top of the column, down to the Defensive Rookie of the Year (ROY), plus the AFC and NFC wild cards counting as two each, there are 19 line items of predictions.  The best that these analysts did was eight correct predictions (8/19):  Brandt, Chadiha, Graziano and Seifert.  One had just 3/19 correct:  Williamson. 

There were three line items where all 16 analysts were correct:  AFC East, AFC South, and NFC North, where they tapped the Patriots, Texans and Packers to win their respective Divisions.  Unfortunately, there were more line items - seven - where none of them got it correct:  NFC East, NFC wild cards, NFC champion, Coach of the year, MVP and Offensive ROY.

The topper is that not a single one of the analysts predicted the Super Bowl winner correctly:  9/16 saw the Packers with the Lombardi Trophy on hand, but the Cheese didn't even make it to the NFC Conference Finals.  2/16 picked teams - Cowboys and Eagles - that didn't make it to the playoffs.  If there is any consolation prize, it's this:  5/16 picked teams - Patriots and Falcons - that at least made it to the Conference Finals. 

Just for kicks

I found these predictions from Jeremy Dorn, featured columnist for the Bleacher Report, ahead of the NFL season.


Dorn did better than his ESPN counterparts.  He offered predictions for just 15 of 19 line items, and he ended up with 9/15 correct.  On only these particular items, the best that an ESPN analyst did was 8/15, and this time only one did:  Graziano. 

Interestingly


Just in case you haven't heard of Bill James, he's the statistical and research genius in baseball, who's revolutionized how the game is viewed by offering up analyses on how the game actually works.  His work is the underpinning of the book and film 'Moneyball.' 
Interestingly, the one team that failed to win a game with a 10-category advantage was the first team with that advantage, the Vikings in the 1969-1970 season’s Super Bowl. The Ravens will attempt to be the first team to beat those odds in 43 years.
Apparently, the Ravens not only fulfilled their destiny, but also bucked statistical analysis.  

My conclusions

The prediction complexity 

There are hazards to making predictions, because the future holds so many variables that, in the present, we cannot see.  Even if we can see them, it's very difficult to determine how they will all turn out.

Who would've thought that Adrian Peterson, virtually just months removed from knee surgery, would have such a kick-ass year and eventually garner the MVP?  Andrew Luck was clearly a favorite to win Offensive ROY, but who would've anticipated the rapid rise of Robert Griffin III as an athlete and leader?  Four analysts at least picked the Ravens to come out of the AFC Conference Finals, but who actually saw them as Super Bowl champion?

As another example, meteorologists, with their sophisticated instrumentation, algorithms and knowledge, are prone to make errors in predicting the weather, especially the farther they project into the future.  Indeed, in his seminal book 'The Black Swan,' Nassim Nicholas Taleb points out that experts are no better or worse than laypeople in making predictions.

So next year, I plan to get myself and a bunch of buddies to make predictions, and compare ours with those of NFL experts.        

A sense of order and control

Election winners, Academy Awards recipients, economic cycles, sales forecasts.  On and on, we love to know what is going to happen, and there are many, in turn, who love to tell us what is going to happen.  Perhaps it gives us a sense of foresight, order and control, because otherwise the future is a daunting phenomenon.

To a large extent, unfortunately, that sense is suspect at best and false at worst. 

Experts are still experts

I'd be curious to know what these NFL analysts at ESPN think about the outcomes of their predictions.  Even more so, I'd be curious to know what system, process or criteria they used to make their predictions.

In any event, these poor outcomes do not undermine their expertise, given the complexity of predicting things and the limits of our tools.  For example, Clayton is known as the professor among the lot, because he's so plugged-in to what is happening in the NFL and he speaks in spitfire pace and with such knowledge and authority.  He very much remains that, even as he was positively middle-of-the-pack with a 6/19 showing. 

In a way, then, Taleb was right:  Predictions level the playing field for all of us. 

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD