ESPN NFL Predictions (2012)

ESPN assembled 16 of its football experts last August, and recorded their predictions for the 2012-2013 NFL season, which just ended with the Super Bowl winning Baltimore Ravens.

In the four tables below, I cross-referenced their predictions with the actual winners, and noted the correct ones in green and the incorrect ones in red.  

The results

From the Super Bowl Champion at the top of the column, down to the Defensive Rookie of the Year (ROY), plus the AFC and NFC wild cards counting as two each, there are 19 line items of predictions.  The best that these analysts did was eight correct predictions (8/19):  Brandt, Chadiha, Graziano and Seifert.  One had just 3/19 correct:  Williamson. 

There were three line items where all 16 analysts were correct:  AFC East, AFC South, and NFC North, where they tapped the Patriots, Texans and Packers to win their respective Divisions.  Unfortunately, there were more line items - seven - where none of them got it correct:  NFC East, NFC wild cards, NFC champion, Coach of the year, MVP and Offensive ROY.

The topper is that not a single one of the analysts predicted the Super Bowl winner correctly:  9/16 saw the Packers with the Lombardi Trophy on hand, but the Cheese didn't even make it to the NFC Conference Finals.  2/16 picked teams - Cowboys and Eagles - that didn't make it to the playoffs.  If there is any consolation prize, it's this:  5/16 picked teams - Patriots and Falcons - that at least made it to the Conference Finals. 

Just for kicks

I found these predictions from Jeremy Dorn, featured columnist for the Bleacher Report, ahead of the NFL season.

Dorn did better than his ESPN counterparts.  He offered predictions for just 15 of 19 line items, and he ended up with 9/15 correct.  On only these particular items, the best that an ESPN analyst did was 8/15, and this time only one did:  Graziano. 

Interestingly

In an article on Bill James Online, the 49ers were overwhelmingly odds-on favorites to secure the big shiny Trophy - based on the Super Bowl Prediction System.  

Just in case you haven't heard of Bill James, he's the statistical and research genius in baseball, who's revolutionized how the game is viewed by offering up analyses on how the game actually works.  His work is the underpinning of the book and film 'Moneyball.' 

Interestingly, the one team that failed to win a game with a 10-category advantage was the first team with that advantage, the Vikings in the 1969-1970 season’s Super Bowl. The Ravens will attempt to be the first team to beat those odds in 43 years.

Apparently, the Ravens not only fulfilled their destiny, but also bucked statistical analysis.  

My conclusions

The prediction complexity 

There are hazards to making predictions, because the future holds so many variables that, in the present, we cannot see.  Even if we can see them, it's very difficult to determine how they will all turn out.

Who would've thought that Adrian Peterson, virtually just months removed from knee surgery, would have such a kick-ass year and eventually garner the MVP?  Andrew Luck was clearly a favorite to win Offensive ROY, but who would've anticipated the rapid rise of Robert Griffin III as an athlete and leader?  Four analysts at least picked the Ravens to come out of the AFC Conference Finals, but who actually saw them as Super Bowl champion?

As another example, meteorologists, with their sophisticated instrumentation, algorithms and knowledge, are prone to make errors in predicting the weather, especially the farther they project into the future.  Indeed, in his seminal book 'The Black Swan,' Nassim Nicholas Taleb points out that experts are no better or worse than laypeople in making predictions.

So next year, I plan to get myself and a bunch of buddies to make predictions, and compare ours with those of NFL experts.        

A sense of order and control

Election winners, Academy Awards recipients, economic cycles, sales forecasts.  On and on, we love to know what is going to happen, and there are many, in turn, who love to tell us what is going to happen.  Perhaps it gives us a sense of foresight, order and control, because otherwise the future is a daunting phenomenon.

To a large extent, unfortunately, that sense is suspect at best and false at worst. 

Experts are still experts

I'd be curious to know what these NFL analysts at ESPN think about the outcomes of their predictions.  Even more so, I'd be curious to know what system, process or criteria they used to make their predictions.

In any event, these poor outcomes do not undermine their expertise, given the complexity of predicting things and the limits of our tools.  For example, Clayton is known as the professor among the lot, because he's so plugged-in to what is happening in the NFL and he speaks in spitfire pace and with such knowledge and authority.  He very much remains that, even as he was positively middle-of-the-pack with a 6/19 showing. 

In a way, then, Taleb was right:  Predictions level the playing field for all of us. 

Thank you for reading, and let me know what you think!

Ron Villejo, PhD